On March 16th, many people are wondering where does this market dip end?
I don’t know.
In the past century, bear markets lasted as little as 2 months and as long as 34 months. Average bear market lasted 11 months with a 26% dip.
At this point we are less than 1 month into this new bear market and S&P 500 index is down 30% from its peak on Feb 20th. If I were to guess, this one might last longer than a single month. But who knows.
The 1987 Black Monday crash was a 22.6% dip in a single day. And it took 3 months to bottom out. The dot-com crash took more than 2 years to find its bottom. 1929 crash took almost 3 years and a 83% percent drop before it bottomed out.
One thought that I have with conviction is that we will look at this crisis and be thankful one day.
Planet and humanity needed this crash to slow down, become conscious of our unsustainable consumption and behaviors, as well as perceived disconnection from each other.
Most importantly, we needed a crisis like this to realize that we are all on the same boat called the planet and we have to take care of the planet and each other.
Kerim Baran 